Optimum Currency Areas in East Asia: A Structural VAR Approach

Optimum Currency Area; Monetary Union; Vector autoregression; Exchange rate; East Asia Abstract: This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to an alternative exchange rate arrangement (a monetary union) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate stability and credibility in the region. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic disturbances of the East Asian economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The Structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) method is employed to assess the nature of macroeconomic disturbances among the East Asian countries, as a preliminary guide in identifying potential candidates for forming an OCA. The preliminary findings of this study suggest that there exists scope among some small sub-regions for potential monetary integration.

A Bayesian Approach to Optimum Currency Areas in East Asia

This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to an alternative exchange rate arrangement (a monetary union) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate stability and credibility in the region. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic disturbances of the East Asian economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). We extend the existing literature by improving the methodology of assessing the symmetry shocks in evaluating the suitability of a common currency area in the East Asian economies employing the Bayesian State-Space Based approach. We consider a model of an economy in which the output is influenced by global, regional and country-specific shocks. The importance of a common regional shock would provide a case for a regional common currency. This model allows us to examine regional and country-specific cycles simultaneously with the world business cycle. The importance of the shocks decomposition is that studying a subset of countries can lead one to believe that observed co-movement is particular to that subset of countries when it in fact is common to a much larger group of countries. In addition, the understanding of the sources of international economic fluctuations is important for making policy decisions. Our findings also indicate that regional factors play a minor role in explaining output variation in both East Asian and the European economies. This implies that while East Asia does not satisfy the OCA criteria (based on the insignificant share of regional common factor), neither does Europe.Optimum Currency Area; Business Cycle Synchronisation, Monetary Integration; East Asia

THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa

The Asian financial crisis in mid-1997 has increased interest in policies to achieve greater regional exchange rate stability in East Asia. It has renewed calls for greater monetary and exchange rate cooperation. A country’s suitability to join a monetary union depends, inter alia, on the trade intensity and the business cycle synchronization with other potential members of the monetary union. However, these two Optimum Currency Area criteria are endogenous. Theoretically, the effect of increased trade integration (after the elimination of exchange fluctuations among the countries in the region) on the business cycle synchronization is ambiguous. Reduction in trade barriers can potentially increase industrial specialization by country and therefore resulting in more asymmetry business cycles from industry-specific shocks. On the other hand, increased trade integration may result in more highly correlated business cycles due to common demand shocks or intra-industry trade. If the second hypothesis is empirically verified, policy makers have little to worry about the region being unsynchronized in their business cycles as the business cycles will become more synchronized after the monetary union is formed. This paper assesses the dynamic relationships between trade, finance, specialization and business cycle synchronization for East Asian economies using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The dynamic panel approach improves on previous efforts to examine the business cycle correlation –trade link using panel procedures, which control for the potential endogeneity of all explanatory variables. Based on the findings on how trade, finance and sectoral specialization have effects on the size of common shocks among countries, potential policies that can help East Asian countries move close toward a regional currency arrangement can be suggested. The empirical results of this study suggest that there exists scope for East Asia to form a monetary union.Optimum Currency Area; Monetary Union; Trade Integration; Business Cycle Synchronisation

Phase diagram of congested traffic flow: an empirical study

We analyze traffic data from a highway section containing one effective on-ramp. Based on two criteria, local velocity variation patterns and expansion (or nonexpansion) of congested regions, three distinct congested traffic states are identified. These states appear at different levels of the upstream flux and the on-ramp flux, thereby generating a phase diagram of the congested traffic flow. Compared to our earliear reports (including cond-mat/9905292) based on 14 day traffic data, the present paper uses a much larger data set (107 days) and the analysis is carried in a more systematic way, which leads to the modification of a part of interpretation in the earlier reports. Observed traffic states are compared with recent theoretical analyses and both agreeing and disagreeing features are found.Comment: More extensive and systematic version of earlier reports (including cond-mat/9905292). A part of interpretation in earlier reports is modified. 6 two-column pages. To appear in Phys. Rev. E (tentatively scheduled for Oct. 1 issue

Audience Response and from Film Adaptation to Reading Literature

In her article Audience Response and from Film Adaptation to Reading Literature Klaudia H.Y. Lee analyses results from 3000-plus interview conducted across university campuses in Hong Kong in order to investigate the roles of screen adaptations and their intertextual relationship for developing students\u27 critical textual practice. Lee combines reader-response theory (Iser and Rosenblatt) with empirical data to explore students\u27 actual encounters and experience with texts. While the data suggests an influence of screen adaptations on students\u27 choice and motivation of reading, this interest can potentially be developed into a critical awareness of the various intertextual possibilities that exist in different forms across media

Error estimates for discontinuous Galerkin method for nonlinear parabolic equations

AbstractWe consider the nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations. We construct a discontinuous Galerkin approximation using a penalty term and obtain an optimal L∞(L2) error estimate

The Variational Problems and Equivalent Forms for a Second Order Elliptic Boundary Value Problem

AbstractWe consider the variational problems for second order elliptic boundary value problems and find the equivalent forms

Radiomics in Lung Cancer from Basic to Advanced: Current Status and Future Directions

Copyright © 2020 The Korean Society of Radiology.Ideally, radiomics features and radiomics signatures can be used as imaging biomarkers for diagnosis, staging, prognosis, and prediction of tumor response. Thus, the number of published radiomics studies is increasing exponentially, leading to a myriad of new radiomics-based evidence for lung cancer. Consequently, it is challenging for radiologists to keep up with the development of radiomics features and their clinical applications. In this article, we review the basics to advanced radiomics in lung cancer to guide young researchers who are eager to start exploring radiomics investigations. In addition, we also include technical issues of radiomics, because knowledge of the technical aspects of radiomics supports a well-informed interpretation of the use of radiomics in lung cancer11Nsciescopuskc

Governance informatics: Managing the performance of inter-organizational governance networks

This article introduces an informatics approach to managing the performance of inter-organizational governance networks that are designed to create, implement and evaluate public policies and the range of activities undertaken by practicing public administrators. We label this type of information flow process management governance informatics and lay out a range of theoretical constructs that may be used to collect, categorize, and analyze performance in inter-organizational governance networks. We discuss how governance informatics may be able to assess and re-design the accountability and transparency regimes of information flows in inter-organizational governance networks. The integration of a governance informatics-driven performance management system into an existing regional transportation planning network is presented as an application of the framework

Modeling of changes in evapotranspiration for an area in Peninsular Malaysia,

A study was carried out to check the sensitivity of evapotranspiration estimation due to changes in climate. The study used 30 years of data from the meteorological station in the FELCRA paddy estate, Seberang Perak, Peninsular Malaysia. The effect of changes in the climatic variables, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed on evapotranspiration were analyzed. Results showed that the mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean wind speed, and net global radiation have changed by + 0.182 oC, -0.73%, -0.0365 mis, and +0.146 MJ/m2 respectively per decade, while the short wave radiation received has decreased by 0.0037 MJ/m2 per decade. The statistical analysis of the evapotranspiration estimations using selected methods showed that the Penman-Monteith, Blaney-Criddle and Pan evaporation methods give similar estimations (P = 0.05) and are suitable for the study area. When changes to the present climate are imposed for future decades, the over-estimation rate is linear with the Blaney-Criddle and Penman methods whereas for the PenmanMonteith method it is exponential. The overall increment expected after 5 decades is 5.3% and 6.9% with Penman and Blaney-Criddle methods respectively. The Penman-Monteith shows a 74.4% increment in the evapotranspiration over the next five decades.The authors wish to expressive their sincere gratitude to the staff of the FELCRA Seberang Perak Paddy Estate Irrigation Scheme, the Drainage and Irrigation Department, the Malaysian Meteorological Service. The authors would also like to thank The Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment for the funding of the Project IRPA 01-02-04-0422